If you've been following along, this one shouldn't surprise you. I predicted months ago that Li-Ning or Anta were the most logical landing spots for Steph, and last week, he landed at Li-Ning on a reported 10-year, $400 million deal. The internet had thoughts. Most of them missed the point.
Let’s break down what actually happened here.
The loudest take has been that Nike fumbled. That they had the most marketable player in the game and let him walk. And I understand the instinct, I do. Steph Curry is a marketer's dream. He's the undersized underdog who changed basketball forever, and that story resonates with people in a way that large stature athletes don’t. I'd liken him to the Caitlin Clark effect: people don't just like him, they root for him because they relate to him. That kind of pro athlete is very rare.
But most of the commentary has treated this like a shoe deal. I don't think Steph was looking for another endorsement deal. He was looking for a business, and there's a real difference.
Under Armour set those expectations. When UA was still a scrappy upstart trying to go punch-for-punch with Nike and Adidas, they broke the rules: stock options, creative control, and a brand structure that operated almost like its own entity inside the company. Not every athlete gets that. In fact, Michael Jordan is the only other has gotten this treatment. Under Armour was willing to do it because they needed Steph more than he needed them at the time, and it worked. Once you've had that kind of arrangement, going back to being one name on a roster is a real step down. Steph got a taste of what the Jordan Brand model actually feels like from the inside. He wasn't going to accept less.
The problem is that no American brand was in a position to give it to him. Start with Nike: LeBron James, arguably the most marketed athlete in NBA history with a lifetime deal, does not have a King James Brand operating independently inside Nike. There is no separate building on campus, no sub-brand he controls. If Nike wasn't going to build that infrastructure for LeBron, there's no version of the conversation where they build it for Steph. Adidas is roughly half Nike's size, so if the market leader couldn't make it work, the math doesn't get better as you go down the list.
There's also a timing reality that people keep glossing over. The sneaker business runs on grassroots. Brands are trying to identify the next 18-year-old, sign them at a favorable rate, develop them over years, and grow the business alongside their career. That's where the math works. AJ Dybantsa just signed to Nike at 19. Cooper Flagg went to New Balance at 19. Wemby is 22. Nike just gave Cade Cunningham his own signature shoe at 24. The model is built around finding and raising young talent, and what you offer those athletes is exposure, placement, campaign budgets, association with your other stars. That's the pitch. (trust me, I’ve delivered it)
That pitch doesn't work with Steph Curry…and it’s not just because they mispronouce his name 🙃 He doesn't need a Times Square billboard. He doesn't need help getting in a room. What he brings to any brand is leverage, and leverage commands a completely different kind of deal. He's 38 years old, which means any brand signing him today would need two years just to develop the shoe and he'd be 40 before it launched. That's not a dealbreaker if you're a growth brand willing to take the long view (see: the Chinese Brands), but it's a real constraint for brands that are already defending market share and managing complicated rosters.
Which is exactly what makes Li-Ning's swing make sense. They're not defending anything in America. They have almost no market share here, with roughly 99% of their business done in China. For them, this isn't a roster management problem, it's a growth opportunity. They can structure the deal differently, move faster through their own manufacturing infrastructure, and if the American market never fully materializes, they still have one of the largest consumer markets on earth buying the product with a population of 1 billion people.
There's a broader pattern worth naming here. Roger Federer left Nike, took equity in On Running, and has made an estimated $350 million on that bet, more than Nike would have ever paid him in endorsement fees. Tiger Woods left Nike to launch Sun Day Red. Alison Felix left to start Saysh. Athletes at a certain level are aging out of the endorsement model entirely and moving toward equity and ownership. At some point their leverage shifts, the company needs the athlete more than the athlete needs the company, and the smart ones recognize it.
Steph saw the same thing. Li-Ning gets access to a generational athlete who still has cultural pull (that he honestly never fully utilized at UA). Steph gets the structure he's been building toward: retained rights to the Curry Brand logo, the ability to sign other athletes, and real equity in what they build together.
This was really the only viable path outside of starting his own brand from scratch, which is a completely different kind of lift.
It was never going to be Nike or adidas. The Chinese brands are here to pay and here to stay.
Speaking of Nike. I’ll share thoughts next week on Nike’s World Cup Strategy perhaps, but here’s my immediate response. To be clear, any business should embrace AI, but this is more about how a brand should show up (using Behind the Scenes).
Education:
The BrandFathers new episode is out! The Fathers discuss how the CMO job became impossible this year. AI killed the work. Search killed the funnel. And the best marketers are now saying no to million-dollar offers.
Inspiration:
SICK use of AI here in an ad from Freaks of Nature (a new suncare brand for athletes)
Gotta love another American Psycho parody: Thrive Beer capitalizes on the optmization culture pushback.
My Favorite Aura Edit leading up to the World Cup. A first of it’s kind: a coach’s aura edit.
Blessings:
It’s the four year anniversary of me leaving Nike. It was a big scary decision and was very hard early on.
I’m feeling really fortunate these days as that sacrifice is paying off in different ways. I’m headed out to do a coast to coast trip soon. First, I get to host a panel with some founders in the health and wellness space that should be amazing. Next, a project I’ve been dreaming about for 20 years. I’m piloting a docuseries with Vice Sports called “Yard Time” where we will explore sports programs in prisons and the positive impact they can have. I don’t think there could be a project better suited for me. If YOU have read this far, thank YOU for the support and for allowing me to get to do amazing things like this. I appreciate YOU.
Blessings!
